I wanted to post a response to Simon Dumenco’s Advertising Age, Media Works article The Coming End of YouTube, Twitter and Facebook Socialism (read the article here).
Dumenco posits the question that with the growing costs of Web services like Twitter, You Tube and Facebook and the amount of venture capital that it takes to subsidize them, as non-money-making entities, how can they be anything but doomed. Admittedly, Dumenco has taken up a position that’s quite unpopular in the Web world right now. People want to believe that these services will make money and that they do provide value. I have videos on You Tube, and I have a (somewhat inactive @mattborghi) Twitter account, and for a time I was seduced by Facebook, but I’ve always come back to the value proposition.
I’m an early-adopter in the sense that if there’s something out there that brings value to and/or makes my life easier, I’m the first to get on-board, but if the value doesn’t continue, and/or the novelty wears off, then I’m moving on.
I’ll give some examples, YouTube when they first came online was pretty cool, and I enjoyed it. I also enjoyed that they were the first to make really wide use of the .FLV (Flash Video Compression format). However, after a while the content was just kind of so-so and I lost interest in general, daily usage. On the other hand, when I’ve needed to do home repairs, plumbing, electrical or otherwise, YouTube’s the first place I go, because they have some great tutorials. The service of being able to find home repair tutorials is awesome, but with sites with specific content of this kind like Expert Village, are YouTube’s days numbered? I don’t know. I guess I have a profound faith in Google’s ability to innovate and defy critics.
With Twitter it’s a little more complicated. I think that in certain situations Twitter is a great tool, and one that could also be very valuable. I think of the fact that much of the information that came out of the November 2008 Mumbai siege was done through Twitter, and many of the first reports of Scully’s skillful landing of US Airways 1549 on the Hudson River came from folks sending tweets via their blackberry’s and iPhones as they waited to board life rafts. As well, the Los Angeles Fire Department used Twitter to communicate during the October 2007 wildfires, and Twitter was also used to great success on the campaign trail during the 2008 elections by all parties for community organizing. However, with all of this said, I can’t think of a comparable model where a tool that you don’t pay for is used so freely. I could see Twitter being acquired into a mobile provider, or some kind of usage royalty being appended to a mobile bill, but as a stand-alone application, I just don’t see it yet.
With Facebook, there are many great aspects, but I just don’t see Facebook ever being monetized as a service. For instance, I like how I can send short message or just “poke” a friend to let them know I’m thinking about them, but don’t have anything to say to them. I like how you can publicize via your status your likes and dislikes. I like the in-window chat and the email functionality, but even with a very significant improvement on the MySpace model complete with Twitter-esque additions (in the redesigned Facebook), I just don’t see it making money. The subscription idea floats around, but I don’t see that ever taking off. There are other iTunes-esque ideas of tagging products and services with purchase options, but the logistic collaboration with more brick and mortar vendors and distributors would be a huge undertaking. Facebook has something, though; they’re different, and they just might be the Google of social networking, but that will remain to be seen.
Getting back to Dumenco’s article, I have to say that some of the best aspects of the Web are free. It’s always been challenging, and sometimes downright impossible, to monetize the Web. On Charlie Rose, a few months ago Marc Andreessen, Silicon Valley entrepreneur and board member for Facebook, said something that stuck with me, and I paraphrase ‘if you can get a million users, you have to be able to do something with them…’ Andreessen might be on to something, but it’s hard to know the future, and it’s even more difficult to know what people are willing to pay for on the Web. With a little luck one of these three organizations might just show us the way…